Section 6
§6 — Scenario Matrix
Status: [DRAFT — pointer]
Principle: Scenarios are useful only when they connect to dependencies and capital. We hold them where they connect.
6.1 Where the scenario matrix lives
The 24-row scenario matrix lives inside §5 Dependency Model. That is deliberate: scenarios make sense only against the dependency engine they tax or relieve.
The three CEO-readable scenarios (Base, Upside, Downside) live in §12 Capital Structure & Realistic Financials.
6.2 Why we don't duplicate
Putting the matrix in two places creates two truths. We keep one matrix, in §5, with the operating-decision lens, and three CEO scenarios, in §12, with the capital lens.
6.3 What the CEO needs to know about scenarios
1. We plan the downside. That is the discipline (§12.5).
2. We never let a single asset's success carry a scenario; the platform must work even if any single venue underperforms.
3. The Georgia film tax credit framework is the single most consequential variable; the downside scenario assumes it reshapes (§16.2).
→ See §5 for the operational matrix.
→ See §12 for the capital scenarios.
The discipline: don't duplicate, don't dilute, don't decorate.